4/12/06 - Note: Since writing the following essay, I’ve read additional credible sources which dismiss “peak oil” as a flawed notion. Some experts believe we will not encounter serious problems with regard to oil supplies before the end of this century or even later. Ironically, that may make oil even more of a problem. As Jeffery Sachs’s pointed out in a recent address to the fourth biennial State of the Planet conference at Columbia University, continued ready availability of oil only gives us more opportunity to damage the earth’s ecological systems through fossil fuel consumption. As Sachs put it, “We’re going to be using lots of fossil fuels and putting an enormous amount of carbon in the atmosphere with all of the consequences of anthropogenic climate change, so we have to find a way to de-carbonize our energy.”

That said, I believe this two part essay still gives an adequately balanced overview of the peak oil discusssion. If I feel otherwise in the future I’ll post revisions or a new essay.

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Global oil production appears to be peaking. Image source: dieoff.org/reprinted from Scientific American, March 1998, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère

“Peak oil” is fast becoming one of the most talked about topics on the Net. Given that oil is a finite resource, the idea is that the amount of oil we can extract worldwide will peak at some point, after which we will see a decline in oil production. This is not just a guess. In 1956 a geophysicist for Shell oil named M. King Hubbert created a model, ran some calculations, and predicted peak oil for U.S production would occur between 1965 and 1970. What happened? It peaked in 1970.

The concern now is all about some experts’ predictions that world oil production is now very near its peak. Some even believe we’re already a bit past the peak. Some say we’re at it now, while others put it just a few years off or perhaps 10 or 15 years away. It’s difficult to pinpoint a consensus on the precise timing of the peak.

Yes, there’s disagreement, but will it last?
There is also the possibility that all the above are too pessimistic, that oil supplies and our ability to extract them will remain adequate for some more comfortable period. Peak oil, in the form of a relatively sudden downturn with alarming consequences, may in fact turn out to be a nothing but hype. It gives one pause, though, to see that even Peter Odell, an expert considered an “anti-peak-oil” theorist, merely splits hairs by predicting a peak in about 2035, just 30 years away.

What we know for sure is that oil supplies are limited while oil consumption is increasing. Countries like China and India are a big part of that increase as they now up their oil guzzling by large leaps.

Another major facet of the problem is that the oil remaining after the peak wil be less accessible, and increasingly expensive and difficult to obtain. We’ll be forced to resort to more expensive means of extraction.

Serious analysts see cause for concern. Even oil companies like Cheveron are gently urging us to prepare for changes ahead:

Energy will be one of the defining issues of this century, and one thing is clear: the era of easy oil is over… We can wait until a crisis forces us to do something. Or we can commit to working together, and start by asking the tough questions: How do we meet the energy needs of the developing world and those of industrialized nations?

(There is concern on the part of some, by the way, that we’re faced with a similar problem with regard to natural gas, another major fossil fuel. I have not researched this. Some do combine it with their assessments of peak oil.)

A change is gonna come
The expected result of peak oil, whether it occurs imminently or some years from now, is the obvious rise in oil prices, along with various possible scenarios ranging – again depending on the source – from mere economic recession to dire societal consequences here and in many countries. The severity of the consequences will hinge on our ability to develop alternative energy sources, as well as energy conservation methods and programs, fast enough to keep pace with dwindling oil supplies.

The most extreme predictions see a near total collapse of modern society with an apocalyptic decent into primitivism. We’ll have a little faith and ignore that scenario for now. More moderate assessments, often coming from well qualified experts, still envision peak oil necessitating substantial social restructuring with a return, for example, to a more agrarian society.
As stated in “Swenson’s Law,” we’ll need to adapt in ways including:

Life-Style Change — a form of conservation: telecommuting instead of commuting … back to the land … living closer to work …

Few would quibble with the prediction that we will at least struggle for a time with much higher oil prices and related economic woes along with some level of intermittent energy shortages.

With any luck, only the less dire predictions of mere recession and relatively mild societal struggles will come to pass. I wouldn’t presume to offer a guess. Remember, however, that unless the most optimistic assessments prove correct, this is all no more than a few years away. Moreover, with OPEC oil likely to play a more dominant role during the years near the world oil peak, political conflict and terrorism can be expected to exacerbate struggles over energy even more than they do now.

None of this would seriously affect our lifestyles if alternative energy sources could be developed fast enough. But few believe we won’t have at least some lag between reduced oil supplies and sufficient availability of such innovations. Though some are undoubtedly exaggerated, it is really no wonder the warnings of society wide repercussions are increasing, and we’re hearing of coming lifestyle changes which, if any but the more optimistic analyses prove correct, will catch many by surprise.

Alright already! What does this have to do with small towns and residential growth?
Patience! Youre probably anticipating where this is headed, but that’s part II.